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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
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Lula said he intends to discuss the matter with his team and analyse potential measures to consider the social impact of online betting.
What the president does not acknowledge is that the government relies on revenue from the sector. In just the first seven months of 2026, BRL8.747 billion generated by sports betting has already flowed into public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service estimates the total could reach BRL16 billion by the end of the year. In 2025, nearly BRL9 billion was collected from sportsbooks.
The burning question is where such funds will come from if Lula shuts down the betting industry. Yet, no one points out to him that players will simply migrate to the illegal market. Betting will continue to exist, but without formal tax revenue, oversight or player protections.
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For anyone who watched David Letterman or listened to Howard Stern in the last millennium, there was no reason to judge his material firsthand—the pop-culture verdict was already in: Carrot Top was an unfunny prop comic.
For the better part of two decades, both the king of late night and the self‑proclaimed King of All Media leaned heavily into Carrot Top as a recurring punching bag.
Because he relied on props, sported a wild look, and established a dominant Las Vegas presence, he fit perfectly into the “anti-showbiz” persona cultivated by both arbiters of Gen-X cool. Across the 1990s and early 2000s, “Carrot Top” became universal shorthand for lazy, cringeworthy comedy.