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The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

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The operator confirmed the Skyhills platform is now inaccessible in the Netherlands following the directive.

Arjan Blok, CEO of Nederlandse Loterij, emphasised the importance of player protection in a statement this week.

“Skyhills uses devious advertising, including on TikTok, explicitly targeting Dutch players, especially young people. Players there gamble without any safeguards and face all associated risks,” he said. 

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Van Lancker said the merger would combine the strengths of both businesses to create a larger and more diversified company with “greater scale and enhanced capabilities” to accelerate growth and create value.

The enlarged group could deliver up to €4 billion in capital returns over the three years following the completion of the deal.

Cirsa has followed an aggressive acquisition strategy in recent years, most recently entering the land-based casino market in Portugal by acquiring a majority stake in Sociedade Figueira Praia, S.A., the owner and operator of Casino Figueira.