Atlantis Thunder

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“What I saw is, Holland Casino is a company with 4,000 people working in hospitality, in a strongly regulated market where you have to balance between offering entertainment and a nice evening out with hospitality, and the risk attached to that – and there you see the similarities with the airline industry.

She adds: “For example, Transavia also had 4,000 people, cabin crew, cockpit, and more, all very regulated, labour union intensive, people being busy with what can we offer to the guests – but at the same time they have to know their rules and their regulations very well, because it’s important when there’s risk attached.

“I had never been a CEO before so I came to it with a kind of Pippi Longstocking attitude – ‘I’ve never done it, but I’m sure I can do it!’”

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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

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Retention has provided another encouraging signal. Depending on the market, Yashin says day-one, day-seven and day-30 retention can range from around the crash-game benchmark to between five and 10 times higher. The number of rounds played during a session can also be significantly greater.

The explanation, he believes, comes back to the behaviour that inspired Swipe Games in the first place. Crash players may experience a different outcome each time, but visually they repeatedly encounter much the same thing. Social media has conditioned its users to expect something new with every swipe.

“People are not playing it just as a quick crash game,” Yashin says. “They play it more like they are betting. It is a different pattern.”